For anyone, anywhere around the world, who follows US politics and is no fan of Donald Trump, the last month has been one of agonising tension.
On the one hand, poll after poll suggested that the president’s iron grip on US politics – in which he controlled the White House, both chambers of Congress, and had an effective majority on the Supreme Court – would come to an end on November 3.
On the other, any opponent of Donald Trump knew not to put too much faith in polls: when it comes to Trump, they had been wrong too many times before. All the news seemed to be good for the Democrats and bad for the Republicans. But what if the polls were wrong again?
Now we know. The polls were wrong again, at least a little – they all underestimated the size of the victory Democrats would win. The party will take control of the House of Representatives with a comfortable majority, and it will take at least 54 Senate seats (counting independents who ally with it) – a goal that seemed outright impossible even six months ago.
This clean sweep of Congress will transform what remains of the Trump era. In practical terms, control of the House gives Democrats a veto on government spending, as well as control of powerful committees able to investigate the abuse and misdeeds of Trump and his officials.
Control of the Senate does some of the same, but even more importantly means that Trump will be unable to confirm senior officials or judges without Democratic approval. Two of the most reliably Republican Supreme Court Justices – Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito – are in their late 70s. With a Democratic Senate, Trump is no longer able to replace either or both with a Maga judge who could sit on the Court for decades.
The political ramifications of the election could be even more seismic than the practical ones. Donald Trump is no longer a winner for the Republican Party. Instead, the GOP has seen heartland state after heartland state turn blue. Democrats won the Senate race and the governorship in Texas. Kansas elected its first Democrat to the Senate in 94 years.
South Carolina, which wasn’t even regarded as an outside pickup for the Democrats even a month or two ago, has turned blue. Even Florida, Trump’s adopted home state, which hosts the “winter White House” of Mar-A-Lago only just stayed Republican – with Democrats coming close in both the governor’s race and the Senate.
The electorate swung around 12 to 13 points towards the Democrats, and they did so right across the nation. The Republicans quite simply have almost no heartlands left, and every indication from exit poll after exit poll is that Donald Trump is squarely to blame.
Donald Trump’s authority over his party could evaporate in weeks: it is entirely possible he spends the next two years in office, but not in power, as Republicans ask themselves what comes next, and wonder how they can possibly claw their way back after this.
In a night with such a sweeping, dramatic narrative, it is easy to lose sight of individual stories – but there are several of significance. Chris Pappas – the heir of a dynasty that has a strong claim to have invented the chicken tender – won his Senate race in New Hampshire, becoming the first openly gay man elected to the US Senate. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed – who throughout his campaign was subjected to racist abuse from Trump and his party – has become the first Muslim elected to the Senate, too.
In Georgia, former mayor of Atlanta and Biden staffer Keisha Lance Bottoms succeeded in her bid to become governor – a potentially huge sliding doors moment in US politics, as it increases the chances of Georgia’s firebrand Senator Jon Ossoff making a presidential run in 2028 (because a Democratic governor would fill his Senate seat with someone from his party). But it is a significant moment in its own right, too: Bottoms will be the first black woman elected to a governorship anywhere in the USA.
Texas, too, has done more than just elect James Talarico to the Senate. Democrats have also taken control of the governorship, the lieutenant governor of the state, and its attorney general – a clean sweep of the state’s top executive roles.
That could cause serious headaches for Elon Musk, who spent around $200 million in Texas alone (and $446 million nationwide) to avoid precisely this outcome. When Musk went all-in on the Republican Party, he relocated his companies out of California and into deep red Texas – only for it to turn bright blue on Tuesday night.
If Musk finds the need to relocate his companies again, where will he even go? These days, there are very few reliably Republican states left. On Wednesday morning, he was brooding on X about the possibility of building data centres in space.
After the party comes the hangover, just as sure as night follows day. When the dust settles the Democrats will have to show they have a plan to turn their incredible electoral results into something real, both in terms of delivering for the voters, and holding Trump’s administration to account, in the face of what is likely to be open defiance.
Similarly, Trump’s presidency will not just end overnight. He has near-total immunity thanks to his tame Supreme Court, has grown used to being able to ignore Congress entirely, and is increasingly detached from reality altogether.
The Democratic win is too large and too universal for Trump to try to overturn it in the courts or through similar trickery, but he will surely try to undermine it in any way possible.
The prospect of fading from relevance and watching his power ebb away could drive Trump to even more extreme measures than he’s taken to date. He might yet try to sneak a Supreme Court nomination through between now and January, while the Senate is still nominally under his control.
But there is a time to worry about all of that, and it is later. For today, anyone who dislikes Donald Trump has reason to celebrate. The Democrats have done what has so often seemed totally beyond them – they’ve actually delivered a win.
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