A whole lot of Americans still support Donald Trump – why?

But looking at Trump’s current numbers, he may struggle to fill any stadium. The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows his approval rating at 34%. That’s joint lowest with his rating during his first term, after his supporters stormed the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

What with waging a deeply unpopular war against Iran, fuel prices up at least 50% this year, inflation at the highest level since he took office, and establishing a fund that could benefit people who assaulted police officers on January 6, many Americans are deeply unhappy with their leader. 

But perhaps more astonishing is that one in three people in the US still thinks Trump is doing a really good job. Which raises the question: who are these people, and what justifies their fealty to a president who has said not only that he doesn’t care about his party’s electoral fortunes but also that he’s not interested in the everyday economic concerns of ordinary Americans? 

His lack of concern was also on show during a Cabinet meeting last week, when he announced: “I don’t care about the midterms.” This, presumably, would have come as a surprise to fellow Republicans. 

Trump’s recent actions reflect this blasé attitude to the crucial Senate, House and gubernatorial elections on November 3. These could hand control of one or even both houses of Congress to the Democrats, hobbling Trump’s agenda for the rest of his term.

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At the end of May, in the Texas primary to choose a Republican candidate for the Senate, Trump backed state attorney general Ken Paxton over the incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Democrats were gleeful, reasoning their candidate James Talarico had a much better chance of beating the scandal-prone Paxton than Cornyn, the four-term Republican stalwart.

But more important to Trump than picking the most electable candidate was rewarding loyalty and keeping Republicans in line. Also important is that Paxton portrays himself as an anti-establishment, culture war hero in the mould of their great leader, which means the MAGA faithful like him. And if there is one cast-iron skill the president has, it is keeping his base on side.

For sure, the Iran war has opened cracks in the Make America Great Again coalition, with some prominent influencers breaking with the president over the military campaign, given that he had run on a platform of no more foreign wars. 

But there remains a hardcore of forever Trumpers who will forgive a few campaign promises broken, so long as the president sticks to his far right talking points and policies. 

These are the people baying for more arrests of migrants; who want more rhetoric against DEI policies and more demonisation of transgender people; and who are pleased to see Christianity placed at the centre of public life. 

I recently spoke to Enrique Tarrio, who was leader of the Proud Boys far right group when some of its members stormed the Capitol on January 6. He was sentenced to 22 years for seditious conspiracy, and was one of the 1,500 people who were charged over the riots, but then pardoned by Trump.

“Am I happy with what’s going on now? Yes – the answer is definitely yes,” he told me when I asked about Trump’s no-holds-barred approach to deporting migrants. 

“Would I love to see more? Obviously… I’m never going to be satisfied with that number.” 

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And Trump keeps giving Tarrio and his January 6 cohorts reasons to stay onside. One of his most audacious recent moves was the establishment of a taxpayer-funded $1.8bn “Anti-Weaponisation Fund”, which Trump said will compensate people who claim to have been unfairly prosecuted for political reasons by previous administrations.

It’s part of a deal with the Department of Justice, in which Trump dropped a lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service linked to the 2019 leak of his tax returns, in exchange for a promise to establish the fund, along with an assurance that his past taxes and those of his family would never be audited.vWhite House officials have refused to rule out money going to people who assaulted police officers at the January 6 riot.

Politically, it’s a disaster. Many Republican senators broke with Trump and openly criticised the fund. “I just came off the campaign trail,” said Bill Cassidy, the incumbent Republican senator for Louisiana who – like Cornyn – was also recently ousted in a primary in favour of a Trump candidate. “People are concerned about making their own ends meet, not about putting a slush fund together without a legal precedent.”

In contrast, the former Jan 6ers are delighted. Sucking up to the president has its benefits, and Trump rewards his friends handsomely. He has pardoned a number of individuals jailed for financial crimes – including some who happen to have donated money to his previous campaigns.

But not every Trump supporter is a far-right activist or a convicted fraudster looking for a get out of jail free card. Ordinary people have a whole host of reasons to continue to back Trump. 

Some people have benefitted from the tax cuts in his Big, Beautiful Bill. One food truck owner I spoke to recently said the removal of tax on tips was going to give his take-home income a huge boost. Others still can’t stomach the Democrats, who are struggling to appeal to conservative voters on issues like transgender women in sports. 

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In Republican heartland states like Iowa, Nebraska and the Dakotas, farmers are suffering as the cost of fertiliser and fuel soar, but still see no alternative and believe Trump when he says things will get better. A recent Fox News poll suggested that Trump’s approval rating among Republicans remains at around 80%, 

But it’s not going to be registered Republicans who decide the outcome of the midterms or indeed the 2028 election, and the recent polling numbers must be concerning for the party. 

The Economist/YouGov poll shows that among 18-29-year-olds, Trump’s approval rating is just 19%, which will be worrying for Republicans given that it was the youth swing to the right that helped Trump retake the White House in 2024.

And independent voters are not happy. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll showed that support among Republican-leaning independents has reached a new low of 56%, while his approval rating among all independents is just 25%. 

Even among his electoral base, there are signs of growing unease. The recent Fox News poll showed that 68% of white rural voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy.

So while there will be plenty of bread and circuses in the coming weeks, and some performers more than happy to share a stage with the president, it will take more than Vanilla Ice whipping up the crowds to turn around the fortunes of this White House.