Andy Burnham is living in the past

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If Burnham held a snap election, he’d win – but there’s a catch

Peter Kellner

In that scenario, a budget bung of £100 for 20 million less well-off households might have brought a grateful doffing of cloth caps, irrespective of the fact that price increases already in the pipeline will quickly swallow up that money and much more. Perhaps that was the context in which Healey, a Cambridge graduate like the prime minister, thought it would be an empathetic move to down a pint of beer in seconds – and demonstrate the effectiveness of his swallow by tipping the empty glass on his bald head.

But if that performance might ever have appealed to “the working-class voter” it is unlikely to do so now, when people do not slip neatly into two categories. Even though the government is turning regularly to focus groups to try out its ideas, it may be failing to grasp the different dynamics now shaping the electorate. As the Tories are learning, today’s diverse society produces complicated voting patterns enabling new parties to make an impact.

So Healey claimed to be giving people “breathing space” with some minor cuts to bills and the £100 handout. He turned to employers to deliver an above-inflation increase in the minimum wage. He then penalised the usual Labour villains: landlords and savers.

Yet many of the people finding life tough are not traditional wage-earners. Some could be owners of a couple of small buy-to-let properties, funded by borrowings, or have several thousand pounds of savings carefully amassed over many years. They could have voted Labour at the last election.

If Burnham is to repeat Keir Starmer’s victory, he will need to woo the existing electorate, not the ideal one. Kemi Badenoch appears to find this particularly difficult, insisting on making the Tories a very narrow party whereas its potential voters come from a much broader spectrum.

Few voters now go through life loyal to a single party. Some may find their stance on social issues evolving; others become more economically hardline. For another group, the climate crisis has become of overriding importance.

Selfish motives may drive some voters, while generational fairness is becoming a consideration. When a minister suggested to the Conservative Party conference that the use of cannabis should be criminalised, the delegates’ unenthusiastic reaction caused some surprise. Apparently, the fear of their grandchildren landing a jail sentence had caused a change of heart in previous hardliners!

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Much of the rhetoric from this government indicates that it might lack an understanding of the younger generation, even as it moves to bringing down the voting age. Talk of “reindustrialising” the country evokes an era far removed from today. The industry Healey wants to encourage is technology-rich and AI-embracing, but is not a career choice favoured by many: they see influencers leading well-rewarded, glamorous lives.

Constantly seeing the good fortunes of others feeds the glum feelings that now engulf much of the country. If Burnham’s government is to succeed in alleviating this, he will have to cater for the electorate he has, not the one there once was.