If Burnham doesn’t pick Miliband as chancellor it’ll be his first big mistake

Andy Burnham will become prime minister in the next week, which isn’t quite how anyone expected things to go. Most Labour watchers expected Burnham would eventually get there, once he had won his Makerfield seat, but it seems as if almost everyone was geared up for a leadership contest.

Wes Streeting seemed the likeliest challenger, but at various points Darren Jones, Catherine West, and even Al Carns were set to throw their hats into the ring. The media had geared up for a leadership battle, but it seems like they weren’t alone: trade unions were ready to nominate and endorse, as were various other interests.

Deprived of that drama, the energy has to go somewhere, and it’s been diverted into endless front-page speculation as to who Burnham should or should not choose as chancellor – most specifically, into reams of coverage explaining why Ed Miliband in particular should not be Burnham’s choice.

Miliband appears to have faced an unusual alliance of some (though by no means all) of the UK’s leading unions and some of its biggest businesses, all of which opposed him. It was an unprecedented lobbying campaign against a cabinet appointed by a prime minister who is not even in office yet. He is, according to reports, a net-zero zealot who would terrify the bond markets.

Perhaps he is. But though Shabana Mahmood now appears to be the runaway favourite, Miliband is still by far the best candidate for the job – and a Burnham premiership would be weaker with anyone else in the role.

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In an ideal world, appointing a cabinet would be a matter of picking the best and most talented person for each brief, ideally based on their interests and experience. The reality is far murkier.

Any incoming prime minister will have policy priorities spanning three or four major government departments, and installing loyalists who are on board with the PM’s vision is essential in those departments – and those people often aren’t the most experienced in those areas. The people with the most experience, after all, might have their own ideas.

Beyond that, PMs have to think about politics. Some people need to be given a big job so that they don’t cause trouble on the back benches. Others need a role so that the cabinet looks politically “balanced”, to keep different factions of the party on board.

Some people get cabinet roles almost entirely because they are good on television, and you need ministers willing to do the broadcast round on your very worst days. All of that is before you start thinking about gender balance, geographic balance, and all the other ways your choices might be assessed. Inevitably, some people will be given a cabinet job and then more-or-less ignored by the PM and No 10 as soon as they’re in the role.

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The chancellor is different. The Treasury sits across absolutely every decision a government makes, both day-to-day and in the long term. Its control of the purse strings makes its purview almost absolute. Because it is a far larger department than No 10, it outmatches it in terms of analysis and briefing.

If the chancellor is not on board with the prime minister, taking on the Treasury is like starting a land war against Russia – history suggests you will end up in an attritional conflict that you will eventually lose, at great cost.

The only way to avoid this is to tackle it at the very start: you need a capable chancellor able to take on the Treasury and point the machine in the direction the prime minister wants. You need that chancellor to be genuinely signed up to the prime minister’s mission. And ideally, you need the chancellor to be an actual friend and ally of the prime minister.

Only Ed Miliband ticks all of those boxes. He is an economist by education, with years of experience as a Treasury special advisor under Gordon Brown. Even his adversaries acknowledge – through gritted teeth – he has been one of the most effective Cabinet ministers of Keir Starmer’s premiership, able to drive through his policy agenda, even when doing so meant taking on the Treasury and the British media at the same time.

And crucially, he is one of Andy Burnham’s most steadfast allies. Miliband has advised Burnham on his return ever since it became a possibility. It was a Miliband special advisor who was seconded to run comms for Burnham’s campaign in Makerfield, and the two men spoke on the phone almost daily.

They are old friends from their time together as advisors. The two should, in theory, avoid the fractious relationship of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – Miliband has been Labour leader once already, and seems happy enough for someone else to do the job now. He considered a run for the job, but only if Burnham did not return to Westminster.