Reform and the Greens are fading – the real fight is Tory vs Labour

Whisper it softly, lest we rouse the gods of insurgency, but the question is well worth asking. Could the next election once again be a contest for power between Labour and Conservative?

Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer is the first to measure public opinion since both the end of the Conservative Party conference and the Greens’ vote to equate Zionism with racism. Kemi Badenoch is holding on to her improved reputation, while Zack Polanski slides to his worst approval rating.

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The larger story is that the party conference season has reinforced trends that have been underway for much of the past 12 months. The graphic shows how the leaders’ ratings have moved since the same week last year. Then the leaders of Labour and the Conservatives – Britain’s two main legacy parties – were less popular than those of Reform and the Greens – the two main insurgency parties.

In Labour’s case the improvement is the result of changing leader. The Tories have not changed leader, but party loyalists in particular have warmed to Badenoch.

That’s not all:

Both Reform and the Greens have seen 8-10 percentage point drops in their support since their peak, while Labour and, more marginally, the Tories have increased theirs.
As a result, the combined support for the two legacy parties now averages 48%; the insurgency parties lag 16 points behind, on 32%. This time last year, the insurgency duo were seven points ahead (44%-37%)
More in Common conducts large scale MRP polls quarterly. At their peak, last December, Reform’s figure was 390 seats. Now they are down to 147. The Greens’ peak, in March this year, was 22 seats. They are now projected to hold just three.
Both Labour (250 seats) and the Tories (126) have recovered from their lows of 85 (Labour) and 41 (Conservative).
For those who prefer their political numbers in the form of real votes rather than poll results, it’s not just Makerfield or Holborn & St Pancras where the insurgents have come unstuck. Each week local council by-elections are held around Britain. Since Andy Burnham became prime minister, Reform has lost ten of the 12 seats it has defended while the Greens have lost three of their four.