Devoting most of a pre-election speech to extolling the delights of a pool, even a reflective one, does not enthuse voters. But apart from that eminently predictable verdict, were there other messages from the US midterms that should resonate with the right elsewhere in the world?
It would be cheering to conclude that the rout of the Republicans showed that right wing extremism is losing its attraction. Sadly, that is not necessarily the case.
Donald Trump consistently failed to deliver on his promises. The vox pop interviews with voters after the ballot kept returning to the cost of living: despite his grandiose boasts to transform the economy, people felt poorer and they wanted to protest.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, now looking at encouraging poll ratings, need to keep reminding themselves of the maxim that helped propel Bill Clinton into the White House in 1993: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
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The latest British prime minister has repeatedly promised to make life a bit easier, but last month’s budget did the opposite for most taxpayers. Even though Andy Burnham is trying to kick financial commitments into the distance, he is in danger of providing the Tories with an open goal.
His early rhetoric about being a friend of business is being viewed with scepticism as concessions to the trade unions mount. Company chiefs are muttering about an unwelcome socialist regime; it is making them reconsider their rejection of the Tories.
Just as it was anti-Tory sentiment that catapulted Keir Starmer and Labour into power in 2024, it was not a massive embrace of the Democrats that swung the midterms. Apart from his failings on the economy and the wars he had promised never to start, the immigration issue remained important to many Americans.
They did not take issue with Trump’s vicious attacks on foreigners, but with his failure to instigate the mass deportations he had pledged. Stephen Miller, the new hardline chief of staff, may now scale these up, starting two years of war with the new Senate.
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This would bring cheers from the UK’s Reform party but it is currently losing support, in part because its leader and his attitude to financial matters is under an unflattering spotlight. Nigel Farage was one of the most vociferous Trump devotees, but his apparent adoption of Trumpery-lite over money is discouraging some supporters. Significant numbers have already defected to Reform’s offspring, Restore Britain, and the substantial vote these two parties still share poses a quandary for Badenoch.
In order to reclaim a chunk of those votes, she must stick to the hard line on immigration with which, anyhow, she seems comfortable. But if she is to appeal to the moderate, middle ground that has defected from her party, she does need to soften her stance a bit, both on immigration and on Europe.
If Farage were to make his final exit from politics – not a scenario on which to bet a large amount of cryptocurrency, or any other money – she might just be persuaded that a combination with a post-Farage Reform would make sense.
That would lessen the Tories’ appeal to moderates but, if she were able to articulate a sound fiscal policy that veered towards capitalism rather than socialism, then, as Burnhamism is exposed as a mirage, a vote for the main alternative would have appeal.
Winning elections, though, is the easy bit. America has been remarkably patient, watching Trump’s outrageous corruption, tolerating his extraordinary ramblings, but this month their patience ran out. The challenge for government is delivery.
The nasty tendency is still at large, but is not the majority in the UK. Most voters want a better standard of living. The party that makes a convincing case that it can provide that stands a good chance at the next election, but the electorate will be intolerant of another failure to live up to promises.
