How Makerfield fell out of love with Brexit

The findings suggest that the supposed risk for a progressive politician such as Burnham in criticising Brexit and proposing close EU links is much less than had been supposed.

Pollsters Opinium, on behalf of pro-PR campaign group Forward Democracy, asked voters in Makerfield, “To what extent, if at all, are you happy that the UK left the EU?”- a more sophisticated question than the usual “Do you think Brexit has gone well?”, which enables those happy that the UK left the EU to criticise the terms of Brexit.

In the event, only a third of voters – 34% – described themselves as ‘happy’, with 24% neither happy nor unhappy, 15% “somewhat” unhappy and 23% very unhappy. 

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The split between those voting for Burnham and Reform candidate Robert Kenyon was also noteworthy. Of Leave voters who were happy with Brexit, Burnham’s vote share was only 22%, but that doubled to 42% among those who were not happy (neither happy or unhappy, or any degree of unhappy), at the expense of both Reform and Restore Britain candidates.

That suggests that what many commentators had described as Burnham’s Achilles heel – his strong opposition to Brexit and stated desire to see the UK back in the European Union – may have been overstated, with Makerfield’s large support for leaving appearing to have subsided in the intervening decade.

Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy, said: “One of the great promises of a referendum is that every vote counts. 

“Ten years since the UK voted to leave the EU, public opinion in areas with strong Leave votes has shifted. Makerfield is such a constituency, where we find only 34% of voters are now happy the UK left the EU. 

“This shows that the country needs more sophisticated systems for navigating competing visions than the blunt instrument of a referendum, but where every vote matters.  Britons need their governments to understand their job is to listen, reflect, find solutions, and lead the country forward in consensus. Andy Burnham is the pro-PR candidate who can work to heal these divisions, in Makerfield and beyond.”

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More broadly, the polling also shows Burnham leading Kenyon by 46% to 41% – although this is within the poll’s margin of error of just under 5%. On a generic “General Election tomorrow” basis, Reform leads Labour by around seven points in the seat. Burnham’s by-election lead therefore represents a personal-vote swing of roughly 12 points in his favour, without which Labour would be on course to lose the seat.

Only 8% of voters remain undecided, and pressing them for a preference did not materially change the topline figures, suggesting a largely settled electorate. In addition, supporters of both Burnham and Kenyon showed equally high levels of commitment, with roughly three-quarters saying they were certain to vote for their chosen candidate.

James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium, said: “Andy Burnham enters the final week of the Makerfield by-election campaign ahead, but narrowly so. 

“Labour’s five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain’s current vote share, suggesting that a divided anti-Labour vote may be enough to deliver victory this time, but could leave Burnham vulnerable in future general elections.”

Reform have shortened in bookmaker William Hill’s Makerfield by-election market, with Labour easing to 1/4 from 2/11 and Reform now 3/1 with three days to go. Restore Britain have drifted to 20/1.