Brazil and Serbia have shown hope is possible – Israel and America, it’s you next

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The result, which seemed impossible three weeks ago when Bolsonaro Jnr won the first round, was a victory for Lula’s programme of protecting environmental measures and Brazil’s health service from threatened cuts. It was also a repudiation of Donald Trump, who publicly backed Bolsonaro, and perhaps of tech giant Meta, which the Lula campaign claimed had throttled its messaging – something Mark Zuckerberg’s firm denies.

In Trumpian style, Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat and called for the election to be annulled after a judge extended voting by two hours – something his own camp had called for.

Aleksandar Vučić’s heavy defeat to the Student List anti-corruption movement in Serbia, ending 12 years in power for Slobodan Milošević’s former propaganda chief, feels equally seismic – and is another blow for Trump.

The increasingly authoritarian Vučić’s decision – after a visit from Donald Trump Jr and the US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner – to grant Trump the right to build a $500m hotel and residential tower on protected land in Belgrade was just one reason that voters deserted him. He planned to host an event by the  MAGA-aligned Conservative Political Action Conference later this year, and his campaign was supported by visits from far right US influencers.

But it is also a defeat for Vladimir Putin. After Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary last April, this result means Russia’s dictator has lost his other vocal supporter in Europe. 

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Serbia’s next government may choose to reboot its stalled accession to EU membership, and a statement from European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president António Costa said: “We stand ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and strong democratic institutions, and to work together to advance Serbia’s future in the European Union.”

These twin defeats of populism offer welcome relief for those fearing victory for Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential election next April and May, having already been stunned by local election success for the far right AfD in Germany. They may be followed by defeats for Trump in the midterms and, first, the removal of Benjamin Netanyahu as Israeli prime minister.

Netanyahu, who has led the country for 19 of the past 30 years and is strongly backed by Trump, is trailing in close polls. A corruption investigation against him would restart if he was forced from office, and his actions during the war in Gaza – over which he is wanted by the International Criminal Court – would face scrutiny by a new government.

And on November 3, Trump is expected to lose at least one chamber of Congress – the House of Representatives – and possibly even the Senate, introducing a brake on his erratic and destructive rule.

Brazil and Serbia have shown that hope is possible. It’s now up to Israel and the US to keep it alive.