Mid-term polls show US voters aren’t convinced by the Democrats

The conditions look ideal for the Democrats to win big in America’s mid-term elections. Most weeks president Trump’s ratings plunge to new depths. Democrat supporters seem more determined than Republicans to turn out to vote in November’s mid-term elections; and the Democrats also have a clear lead among independents.

However, that is not the whole story. The Democrats’ ratings are as bad as Trump’s. A recent YouGov poll found that 36% regarded the president favourably. Against 57% unfavourably. The same poll’s figures for the Democrats in Congress were: 34-56%.

Fortunately for the Democrats, Trump’s reputation matters more. The latest poll-of-polls from USPollingData puts the Democrats seven points ahead. They probably need a 3-4 point lead to overtake the Republicans. All in all, the Democrats should win the House, but not by a landslide.

Their victory would weaken Trump’s final two years as president; but the real game-changer would be for Democrats to win the Senate as well. They could then hurt Trump badly, for example by vetoing his nominations for cabinet members and federal judges, as well as sharing power with the House to block Trump’s plans for taxes and new laws.

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Thirty-five Senators will be elected this year – 33 according to the regular timetable of six-year terms, plus two seats won last time by J D Vance and Marco Rubio, who vacated their seats when they joined Trump’s administration. The other 65 Senators are not up for election this year.

The Democrats currently have 47 Senators. They need to gain four states to achieve a 51 seat majority.

The table shows their six target states. They include Alaska, where the Republicans are divided and are at risk, despite winning by 13 points six years ago. The most dramatic result would be for the Democrats to win Texas, where they have lost every Senate and presidential race since 1992. A Democratic victory would augur well for the presidential race in 2028, when Texas’s 40 electoral college votes could be decisive.

However, according to RealClearPolling’s aggregate figures, the Democrats are well ahead in only one of the six states: North Carolina. Seven weeks out, the other five are too close to call, which means so is the Senate.