Things feel very different for a Brit visiting Brussels these days. There was a time when officials, diplomats and staffers working for the various EU institutions dotted around the European Quarter would open meetings with a pointed question about Brexit.
Over time, that reflexive response to an unmistakably English accent has faded, as the UK has slipped down the EU’s list of priorities.
For those of us who regret Brexit, there is something particularly tragic about the diminished role of Britain out here in 2026.
When Keir Starmer won his majority in 2024, there was hope in Brussels of a break from the friction they had experienced from the Conservatives. No one expected anything so fanciful as a push to rejoin the bloc, but they thought Starmer, who campaigned for a second referendum, might be more flexible once in power.
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There was similar hope that Andy Burnham might be more willing to cross the red lines of the Labour election manifesto – after all, it wasn’t Burnham who drew those lines. However, a couple of weeks into his premiership, our new prime minister revealed he’d come a long way from his 2025 ambition of rejoining the EU.
To people in Brussels, Burnham’s renewed commitment to the Brexit red lines effectively closes the small window in which the Brits might have changed course.
Something often missed in London during the dark days of Brexit negotiations was that people in Brussels read the British press. Back then, it meant they were well versed in the parliamentary deadlock and hostile political rhetoric.
Today, it means they see the polls and changing attitudes to Europe in the UK. Poll after poll shows that most believe Brexit was a mistake and that the government should rub out its red lines to get a better deal.
However, they also know how tight things are and recognise the possibility that Reform UK could play some role in the next government.
They understand, too, how volatile British politics is. The received wisdom that Burnham will change those red lines come the next manifesto has been noted. But they also know how quickly fortunes can change and that, should the next election produce a Eurosceptic majority, those manifesto commitments will be meaningless.
To be clear, this idea that a window is closing is only met with moderate regret. Europe has a lot to be getting on with and doesn’t have much capacity to worry about the UK.
Last week, member states began debating the Multiyear Financial Framework – sometimes called the EU budget. The commission has proposed €2tn of cash that, they hope, will make much-needed reforms to the union. For example, €131bn has been earmarked for defence and space programmes to make Europe more competitive with global rivals.
Among the other big-ticket items is €100bn in financial aid to Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of a country neighbouring the EU’s borders is still one of the biggest concerns in Brussels, if not the biggest. Despite Ukraine’s incredible deep strikes putting Russia on the back foot, EU officials say that, for the first time since 2022, they are fearful of Ukraine fatigue in Europe.
The recent lifting of sanctions on Russian oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman has increased fears that some EU member states are starting to wobble.
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While the Brussels world of officialdom still sees Ukraine as a top priority, there is a quiet acknowledgement that the length of time, the amount of money and political oxygen the war has taken up is finally taking its toll – with both politicians and the public.
Talking of politicians and the public, the EU is also looking on in horror at developments in the key member states of Germany and France. The former has recently seen the far right, pro-Russia AfD win critical local elections, while the latter will hold a presidential election next year that could finally see Marine Le Pen take the Élysée.
Just as the EU’s bureaucracy is looking at spending €2tn reforming the union, politics and other external factors could wreck it. What most officials see is a conundrum that could become existential. And even those of us in Britain, still mostly seeing Europe through the narrow lens of Brexit, should be able to see why there is so little incentive for the EU to indulge a country that stormed out once and still cannot say what it wants.
