Being impeached twice does not always condemn a leader – just ask the current occupant of the White House. But, unlike Donald Trump, Sara Duterte, vice-president of the Philippines, finds herself on the back foot.
The Philippine House of Representatives has now voted to impeach Duterte for a second time, with the process now moving to the Senate for trial. She is accused of misusing public funds and making death threats against president Marcos Jr, after stating that she had dreamed of decapitating him.
It is little wonder Duterte is compared to her equally outspoken father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, who was himself dubbed the “Trump of Asia”. However, if impeached, Sara would be barred from succeeding him, just months after announcing her candidacy for the 2028 presidential elections.
The Duterte dynasty is fighting for survival in the Philippines. Rodrigo Duterte is detained in the International Criminal Court, facing charges of crimes against humanity for his alleged role in the bloody “war on drugs”, where thousands of Filipinos were killed on the streets. In April, the ICC confirmed these charges against Duterte, meaning he will go to trial facing possible life imprisonment.
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His bruising ex-police chief and decades-long ally, Ronald dela Rosa, could join him there. This week, the now senator was issued with an arrest warrant from The Hague for his alleged part in the anti-narcotics campaign.
Dramatic CCTV footage captured dela Rosa scurrying through the corridors of the Philippine legislature to evade capture. He then went into hiding within the Senate building itself, where gunshots were later heard. No fatalities were reported, although dela Rosa did appeal to his supporters to protect him from being extradited to the Netherlands.
Could dela Rosa, a self-styled strongman, be experiencing the fear that many, often impoverished Filipinos felt when their neighbourhoods were terrorised by his police officers? If nothing else, it serves as a metaphor for the Duterte clan, who are in defensive mode and facing the possibility of losing their heir to impeachment.
How did we get here? The Duterte and Marcos clans have been locked in a gruelling dynastic feud, which has distracted from all the problems faced by ordinary Filipinos. Sara Duterte and Ferdinand Marcos Jr put differences aside to team up in the 2022 presidential race, winning by a landslide. But it was purely a political move, and with the president and vice-president elected on separate tickets, any political marriage was always vulnerable to divorce.
While Marcos Jr has remained tight-lipped throughout, his allies have been working to destroy the Duterte clan. First, his government cooperated with the ICC to extradite Rodrigo Duterte, then his supporters in the House of Representatives sought Sara’s impeachment. It’s no wonder that her supporters are furious at what they perceive to be a political witchhunt.
Marcos Jr has every reason to get rid of her. She is still polling as favourite for the 2028 presidency and would probably unravel many of his key policies, including his renewed confrontation with China in the South China Sea.
Her supporters see Sara as a victim. In Davao, the southern stronghold of the Duterte clan, signs line the highways reading “Protect VP Sara”. Lifesize cardboard cutouts of her perch in the sari-sari stores and the carinderia eateries. People wear T-shirts showing the iconic Duterte “fist pose”.
Many in the south believe the rest of the country sees them as backwards, and they may be right. Last year, a Luzon academic described southerners as “sub-Saharan”, implying socio-economic disparity, although he later apologised.
Many parts of the Philippines, particularly the southern island of Mindanao, voted for Rodrigo Duterte because they believed he had their best interests at heart. Now that tribal support has extended to his daughter.
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“Prayer rallies” for their under-siege vice-president have taken place in the Philippines and the diaspora. A lot of Duterte supporters now reject the mainstream media and have instead turned to influencers on Facebook and Instagram for their news. But there is one problem. Many of these “citizen journalists” are paid-up members of the Duterte team, who stoke narratives of injustice and insurrection.
Moe is a Duterte influencer. She said: “Sara really cares. The way she governed Davao City [as mayor] was very organised, just like her father. There’s a pattern there and I hope she can be president in the same way.”
With Sara Duterte fighting for her political life, and Marcos Jr’s term reaching its conclusion, the Philippines may have the opportunity to reject two of its grandest political families.
Ben Sturt has lived in Mindanao and written about Philippine politics for the Diplomat
