Who will be Reform's leader in Wales?

The eyes of the world will turn to Newport, South Wales, this Thursday when, unable to put it off any longer, Nigel Farage will unveil Reform’s new leader in Wales and thus its candidate for first minister.

Farage’s previous man in Wales, Nathan Gill, is somewhat awkwardly prevented from standing in May’s Senedd election due to spending the next 10-and-a-half years in prison after taking bribes to make pro-Russian statements in the European Parliament.

The Reform leader has been reluctant to appoint – no internal democracy here! – a new leader, partly because he tends to fall out with alternative holders of power and partly because he still retained a fancy of taking part in the televised leaders’ debates in Wales himself, despite not standing for a seat. That seems to have been shot down by ITV Wales saying they would not host anyone not standing. Reform are said to have considered legal action against the broadcaster, but are believed to have backed down.

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Which begs the question: if not Farage or Gill, who? The venue, Newport’s International Convention Centre, has set tongues wagging that it could be Laura Anne Jones, Reform’s only Senedd member after defecting from the Tories last year and whose seat is in neighbouring Monmouthshire. But Rats in a Sack hears that is unlikely after she was banned from the Senedd chamber for 14 days last year after using a racial slur to describe Chinese people. She later defended herself saying “Chinky” was “a term used for a takeaway”. Farage is not thought to fancy another campaign spent defending racist terms.

Another possibility is Llŷr Powell – or ‘Welsh Dave’ as Farage, who can’t be bothered to learn the pronunciation of his name, calls him – who was Reform’s candidate in last year’s high-profile Caerphilly by-election. That, though, is likely to count against him: Powell was a disaster, conspiring to lose a by-election Reform threw the kitchen sink at, focusing exclusively on immigration in a constituency with hardly any and rolling his eyes during a live TV debate at a woman concerned about the racism faced by her mixed-race children.

Farage could go back to the future and appoint Mark Reckless, who is helping to write the party’s manifesto. He, though, might not be considered one to last the course, having previously sat in the Senedd for the Conservatives, UKIP, the Brexit Party, as an independent and for the Abolish the Assembly Party. He was once described by David Cameron as having a “fat arse”.

Which leaves a relative unknown: Jason O’Connell, who represents the party on Torfaen council, and has been trusted with a string of tricky media interviews of late. Asked if he was up to the job as leader at the weekend, he said: “I think so, but I haven’t had a call.” Those in the know say O’Connell has the key quality Farage is looking for: complete and utter loyalty.