Is Matt Goodwin's by-election bid a poisoned chalice?

With his selection as Reform’s candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election, Matt Goodwin completed his transition from a one-time left-leaning academic covering the far right to a fully fledged politician belonging to it.

But sources in Reform’s orbit are speculating whether his elevation is all that it appears to be – with some suggesting that Goodwin has been handed a poisoned chalice, one whose toxicity he was too politically naïve to notice.

Nigel Farage has a long history of falling out with any other big character who wants to share the stage with him. Rupert Lowe’s acrimonious split from the party amid mutual allegations suggests Farage has yet to outgrow this element of his personality.

Goodwin similarly has a long history of falling out with former colleagues – hence his reputation in political academia – and has his own supporter and messaging base through his Substack. The potential for future clashes between the two men was evident.

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By putting Goodwin forward as the candidate for Gorton and Denton, Reform has seemingly elevated his reputation: he might be an MP by the end of the month.

But that win is far from guaranteed. Gorton and Denton should be one of the safest Labour seats in the country. The combination of the party’s current unpopularity – and a spirited challenge from the left in the form of the Green Party – means it might be winnable this time for Reform.

If Labour or the Greens took the seat, the risk for Reform would be that the narrative changes to one saying that despite a wave of high-profile defections – arranged just as Kemi Badenoch appeared to be eating into its poll numbers – Farage’s party is losing momentum. The media might start to notice its polling has plateaus, and that Farage’s personal ratings with the public are falling.

Having a prominent candidate like Goodwin in the seat means that if it goes wrong, he can easily be fitted up as a scapegoat. If he wins, Reform and Farage will take the credit, the insiders reason, and if he loses, Goodwin will be landed with the blame.

Either way, observers note, Goodwin’s tenure as an MP is unlikely to be a long one: even if Reform takes the seat at a by-election, it would be very unlikely to keep hold of it at the next general election. That, too, is something of which Farage was surely aware. Was Goodwin?