The German idiom for a deer caught in the headlights is “wie ein Kaninchen vor der Schlange” – like a rabbit before the snake, frozen as the threat slithers closer.
This Sunday, the state election in Sachsen-Anhalt is that snake, the AfD is the venom and there are rather a lot of rabbits about. They would, of course, protest at any suggestion of paralysis or helplessness. Judge for yourself: several senior SPD and Green politicians – among them defence minister Boris Pistorius and Baden-Württemberg’s new Ministerpräsident Cem Özdemir – have just called for a ban of the AfD’s most radical state associations, targeting Thuringia, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg.
MDR Sachsen-Anhalt, the public broadcaster for the state of 1.7 million people, ran a special feature on its news programmes last week: for a few seconds, television screens went black and the radio fell silent. The message: this is what it would look – and sound – like if the AfD made good on its vow to shut the broadcaster down.
Sven Hüber, deputy federal chairman of the police union, sparked a row among his own ranks with an article in the members’ magazine, Richtig Nein sagen (“Saying no properly”), arguing that officers who take their oath seriously cannot vote for, support, or join a party that’s hostile to the constitution.
Celebs from east Germany, including Bafta-winner Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), academics, athletes and entrepreneurs have joined the campaign “Wahre Heimatliebe ist…” (True patriotism is…), warning about the consequences of an AfD state government for the culture sector and for care work, an industry that relies heavily on immigrants.
Appealing to people’s love of home makes sense in Saxony-Anhalt, where surveys suggest the love for the Heimat runs deep. So does frustration: the state has an ageing population, a perceived cancel-culture problem and is undergoing a rural exodus while dealing with arguments over illegal immigration and low household incomes.
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This last issue makes Germany’s financial and military support for Ukraine a hard sell – the AfD would stop it if they could.
The paradox is that a vote for the AfD could amount to self-harm. “The state will suffer considerable damage if things turn out as we now must fear,” chancellor Friedrich Merz said a few days ago, adding that he could not imagine international investors still turning up for a groundbreaking ceremony with an AfD state premier. “But that is a decision for the voters to make,” he said.
And they will. Polls put the AfD on 40% – comfortably the strongest party, nearly doubling its result from five years ago. The CDU, on 23%, is braced for heavy losses though an outright AfD majority still looks unlikely, provided enough smaller parties clear the threshold. The left is currently projected at 13%, the SPD at 9%, the Greens at 6%, and the FDP and BSW at 3%. Factor in a 2.5-point margin of error and this could turn even more interesting on election day.
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Should the AfD need a coalition partner, good luck finding volunteers. If you want a stable and functioning government, the idea of all other parties forming a coalition bloc against the AfD isn’t your answer.
The reason? CDU has ruled out working not just with the far right but with the far left, Die Linke, too. Breaking that promise would be tantamount to a middle finger aimed at its own moderate and conservative wing. Which makes CDU the biggest rabbit yet, desperately looking for a place to run.
