It’s rare for German chancellors to interrupt a summer holiday for crisis management on TV – but Friedrich Merz, barely 100 days into the job, has just had that pleasure. The cause? His policy shift on Israel. Which actually isn’t a shift at all, he says. Well…
For background: If there’s one consensus among European governments, it is regarding Germany’s unique relationship with Israel. Since Adenauer, guarding Israel’s right to exist has been a given for German governments. Because it was the Nazi atrocities culminating in the Shoah that ultimately proved the need for a Jewish state to protect its people.
So, no need to ring Berlin when drafting a joint action plan about Gaza, or a two-state solution. No one expects the chancellor – whoever it is – to fall into line with the rest of Europe.
This doesn’t mean Israel is beyond criticism in Germany, as some complain. But you will find that German politicians, across the political spectrum, are more nuanced than, say, Ireland’s president.
This century, this isn’t down to a guilt complex. It’s more about common decency: Despite Germans always knowing best, of course, it’s hardly the descendants of Herr Hitler’s fanbase who should lecture an Israeli government on navigating its own complexities.
Of course, the opposite exists, too: those who feel morally bound – precisely because of our national expertise in genocide – to denounce Israelis for settler violence and now the war in Gaza. Still, most support the special relationship, but wish things weren’t just as messy in the Levant.
But they are. And Merz faces the suffering in Gaza, caused by the policies of Benjamin Netanyahu’s far right coalition and Hamas’s belief that starvation serves its cause.
So last Friday at midday, just before heading off into his holiday, Merz issued an 11-sentence-statement. It was loaded.
His government will, for now, withhold exports of weapons, citing Israel’s planned offensive on Gaza City.
Germany comes second to the US in supplying Israel with arms, but it remains unclear precisely which armaments Merz meant. Actual weapons aren’t being delivered currently anyway, mainly spare parts. Experts say that Israel can cope without. So the move is largely symbolic.
Symbolic, but costly for Merz. Never mind whether you think Germany should take a tougher stance on Netanyahu or not: Merz’s credibility is on the line, again.
As leader of the opposition, he promised to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine (he didn’t). He vowed not to increase deficit spending (he did). And he attacked Olaf Scholz for lacking solidarity with Israel. The then-chancellor replied: “We have delivered weapons. And we will.”
Now, suddenly, it is Merz who won’t, despite his “unmistakable” campaign promise: “In future, the rule will be: whatever Israel needs to exercise its right to self-defence, Israel will receive.”
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Previous chancellors never questioned what this self-defence entailed – this was for Israel to decide. Also, up until what many Israelis call Netanyahu’s “forever war”, chancellors never discussed the proportionality of Israel’s actions.
Merz did. And he found himself applauded by the social democrats, the far left and the far right, while shocking his own CDU and the Bavarian sister party CSU. Even those who agree with Merz – and many don’t – resent being überrumpelt (blindsided) by a meagre 18-line statement.
Hence the damage control: a briefing paper for internal use, a hastily arranged interview with public broadcaster ARD in which Merz insisted there was “no change in Israel policy”. His government, he said, simply has a disagreement with Israel over how to proceed in Gaza. “A friendship will endure such criticism,” he argued. “And solidarity with Israel does not mean that we consider every decision a government makes to be good, or that we support it.”
Let’s face it: Berlin’s influence on Netanyahu is limited, to put it mildly. The PM promptly called Merz “a good friend of Israel” and attributed his decision to public pressure following misleading media reports on Gaza.
Merz denies this, but whatever he does – or doesn’t do – won’t alter the course of the conflict. He has, however, alienated many in his party, which still doesn’t feel entirely his, cemented his image as a lone decision-maker and deepened the suspicions of those who already had trust issues with him. Bowing to the mob is one accusation. Not helping the German hostages in Gaza enough is another.
One thing you can still bank on though: while the latest polls show a majority of Germans in favour of recognising a Palestinian state now, Merz will not take that step before Gaza is under peaceful governance.
