Trump has devastated Iran - and damaged himself

A two-week ceasefire has brought a temporary end to the bombing of Iran, and relief to the world. Iran’s military and infrastructure have been devastated, but even as he claims “total and complete victory”, Donald Trump has been badly damaged too.

No politician understands the power of the choreographed moment more than the president, and in the last few days Trump has reached for Richard Nixon’s “madman theory” – presenting himself as so volatile, so irrational that he might just do something apocalyptic – as an off-ramp from a conflict that spiralled out of control.

Now he will claim that his astonishing Truth Social messages on Easter Sunday (“Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell”) and two days later (“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”) brought Iran back to the table and the global economy back from the brink. The madman triumphant.

It is a message that will be reinforced in celebratory press conferences today, after Trump declared a “big day for peace” and a new “golden age of the Middle East”

The problem is that this is patently not true. The absence of significant gains for the US announced so far in a 10-point roadmap to end the war indicate that Iran believed Trump was bluffing in search of a way out, and that they were right.

Most notably on Wednesday morning, Iran appears to be in full control of the Strait of Hormuz and of its stockpile of 440kg of uranium. It may have allowed free passage of the first in return for no restrictions on enriching the second.

If true, that would be an embarrassment for Trump. There have been plenty of them during this conflict.

As reporting by the New York Times’ Maggie Halberman and Jonathan Swan makes clear, the president – swayed by an Israeli plan that his own military thought partly “farcical” – thought the conflict would be over quickly. Even some of his self-appointed toadies were worried, and vice-president JD Vance openly opposed the proposals, but in the end the president – backed by the hot-headed war secretary Pete Hegseth – got his way.

America’s traditional allies refused to join the fight, signalling a new reality – that the world is rebuilding around a US-shaped hole. Domestic polls, which show Trump’s Republicans facing big losses in November’s crucial midterms, failed to deliver him a war bounce, leaving his majorities and his entire political project in jeopardy.

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And while condemnation was always going to come from a strange alliance of people that includes the Pope, the MAGA exile Marjorie Taylor-Green, the UN secretary general António Guterres and Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, it is other criticism from closer to home that has the potential to be truly harmful for Trump.

Even Trump loyalists like Wisconsin senator Ron Johnson and Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage were appalled by the ‘end of civilization’ post. Vance will be seething, and the man he is likely to face in the race for the 2028 Republican nomination, podcaster and former TV host Tucker Carlson, has called Trump’s social media posts “not acceptable for Christian… for Americans or any other civilised people.” Other influencers who helped Trump beat Kamala Harris in 2024 are drifting away from the MAGA project, and scepticism about Israel is widening in the podosphere.

Meanwhile, Iran’s military is devastated and many of its top leaders are dead. But if the dust settles here, there is no sense in which Iran’s regime could be said to have lost the war. The IRGC has more control over Ian now than it did before the conflict. The succession of the Ayatollah has been managed, with the old Ayatollah Khamenei’s favoured successor, his son, taking up the role. Donald Trump has acknowledged the role of Iran’s military in managing the Strait of Hormuz.

If Iran is able to levy a $2m per ship charge for passage through the Strait, reportedly to be split with Oman, that is worth more than $100 million a day. But the peace plan indicates international sanctions on Iran would also be lifted – which would be worth even more. It is possible that aspect of the offer is insincere, but in practical terms, for Western companies to pay the Hormuz toll – and so to access the Strait – those sanctions would need to be lifted.

Strategically, Trump’s invasion would therefore have left Iran with its nuclear enrichment programme, ensured hardline control of Iran for the foreseeable future, and provided Iran with the financial means to rebuild and rearm, as well as handing the regime a comprehensive propaganda victory. It is hard to imagine a more comprehensive strategic defeat for the US, and for Israel than that.

All of this makes the next few weeks deeply uncertain: the US is still moving aircraft carriers and other assets into the region. This ceasefire may be insincere. Trump could, once he sees reporting on the deal he’s struck, change his mind. Israel surely cannot be happy with this outcome, though Netanyahu’s credit with Trump is surely damaged by this outcome.

With MAGA fractured, the Iranian regime still in charge and the country’s ability to enrich uranium and work towards a nuclear weapon still intact, this does not feel like a victory at all.