Even Tory voters think delusional Kemi is wrong about Brexit

An average of four opinion polls published so far in October shows Reform at just over 32%, nearly double the Conservatives’ 17.5%. Yet Badenoch barely mentioned Farage and Reform in her speech, and when she did, claimed that they were “offering free beer” – a policy most of the country would get behind.

This is why, despite performative raptures from the Mail and Telegraph, Keir Starmer’s halting and detail-light speech at Labour’s conference a week earlier was far more effective than Badenoch’s. Branding Farage a snake oil salesman who does grievances but not solutions is a better line than calling him the free beer man. And after years of omertà, Starmer went after the failure of Farage’s big project, lashing out at “Brexit lies” and comparing the toxic effect on the economy of leaving the EU to the damage done by Covid. Labour’s path on the European Union may not be the one favoured by New World readers, but it is clear: incremental improvements that will smooth problems for business, travellers and young people seeking to work for a limited time in the EU 27 or the UK.

By contrast, what did Badenoch say about the past and future of Brexit? We gave the British people a choice on our membership of the EU, and we implemented that decision. That it was responsible for “the fastest vaccine roll-out in the west” (untrue). That it created “billions of pounds worth of trade deals” (deals rubbished by Brexit architect Michael Gove at a fringe event at the same conference).

“No other party would have done these things,” she said. At least that bit was accurate. No other party would have been so negligent.

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And at least Badenoch didn’t repeat her patronising pre-conference gaffe, “last time I checked, Ireland, Northern Ireland did vote to leave” – although she clearly still believes it should have done. The damage done to her credibility by not knowing that only 44% voted for Brexit in NI is such that she has had to announce a special review to ponder the effects on the Good Friday Agreement of her disastrous policy to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. Even the Badenoch-cheerleading Spectator says “withdrawal from the ECHR would have huge ramifications for the constitutional situation in Northern Ireland”.

Wider than that, leaving the ECHR would again bring Britain into direct conflict with the EU, putting not just Starmer’s Brexit reset but Boris Johnson’s original trade and co-operation agreement in peril. At best, months of painful and angry negotiation would lie ahead. At worst, the suspension of tariff-free trade. The Brexit wars would be back, and Britain would be poorer. Is that what Badenoch wants?

It is certainly not what is wanted by the few who are considering voting for her party at the next election. Ahead of her speech, polling by YouGov for Best for Britain found that people who say they intend to vote Conservative at the next general election were more than twice as likely to consider Brexit a failure for the UK (46%) compared to a success (22%).

Half (51%) cited its economic impact as the primary reason for calling it a failure, with 50% saying it damaged our ability to trade with Europe. Some 37% of Tories said they did not think Brexit had resulted in extra NHS funding, and 32% said leaving the EU had made bills go up in the UK.

The results came a week after a More In Common poll for Politico showed 57% of 2024 Tory voters supported the agri-food element of Starmer’s reset deal, with only 34.5% against. Even Conservative voters have moved on from Brexit battles, but Badenoch has not.

It all goes to show that the sandwich-hater is out to lunch. Before long, she will just be out.