US attacks on Iran push the world towards chaos

The sight of an Iranian missile crashing into the US 5th Fleet’s base in Bahrain, just hours after Trump declared war on the Islamic Republic, should be a stark reminder of the danger the regime poses: not just to its own citizens but to us.

Iran’s ballistic missiles can hit Greece; its cruise missiles can reach Sicily – putting key Nato allies within range, as well as British bases on Cyprus. All it would take to extend that range to London would be for China or Russia to hand the regime one of their own long-range missiles, or the technology to build one. Add to that the nuclear weapon the mullahs have been trying to build and there is clear jeopardy.

With the disintegration of the rules-based international system, Khamenei’s regime has posed an increased direct danger. Its agents have plotted and attempted assassinations on UK soil. Its proxies have been carrying the great leader’s portrait onto Gaza demonstrations – to the apparent nonchalance of some marching alongside them.

So this is a dangerous moment. It is entirely possible that, in the window between the US onslaught starting and the degradation and depletion of Iran’s missile stockpiles, the regime will attack British people and British interests.

Keir Starmer is right to have kept UK forces from participating in the attack. Trump has made no public attempt to create a coalition of forces that could influence the conduct and objectives of the war. And he has made no case to the United Nations. This is a signal of his disregard for the UN Charter system, which the UK – whose first principle is obedience to international law – cannot be implicated in.

And while Trump says to the Iranian people “take power”, he is offering no direct support for them to do so other than decapitating the regime. The days when the US could, or even wanted to “nation build” in the Middle East are over.

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As a result, if the regime splinters, or civil disorder begins, there is no guarantee that the people who win are the good guys. As the US degrades Iranian command and control networks, it is likely that the regime splinters into localised fiefdoms run by the hated Basij militia, and that both Balochistan and Kurdistan establish some form of regional autonomy.

We have seen, not twenty years ago, what happens when the US breaks something and then walks away. No matter how just the struggles of the Iranian youth and women are against their religious overlords – I have supported them consistently for decades – the best thing the UK can do is build their capacity to survive the coming regime collapse, and offer its expertise in stabilisation.

The UK can and must of course defend itself against any Iranian attack. Since the regime looks like it wants to go down in flames, it is possible that such attacks may include terrorism against British citizens, either here or abroad, or even direct ballistic threats to Cyprus.

The war demonstrates in the grimmest terms what the “multipolar world” has brought us. China and its proxies have revelled in the paralysis of the United Nations, mobilising a coalition of corrupt, autocratic regimes in the global south to declare the West and its values finished.

Now it faces a choice – which every nation strung into China’s Belt and Road Initiative will be watching intently. Two days ago China supplied Iran with drones and anti-aircraft missiles that will now be used against the US and Israel, and signalled it would soon supply missiles good enough to sink a US carrier.

So as the Khamenei regime falls, China will lose not only the jewel in the crown of Chinese diplomacy, and a key supplier of oil, but – worse – diplomatic face with its client states.

Taking out Saddam Hussein plunged Iraq and the wider region into two decades of conflict. Taking out the Islamic Republic, which is more deeply rooted in Iranian society, and in Shi’a society in southern Iraq, Yemen and southern Lebanon, will be harder – and likely increase the chaos in the short term.

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If the byproduct of Trump’s war is that Iran stops supplying weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine, and that the young, secular-minded people of Iran get to overthrow the torture state, that’s positive. But it is not worth the UK implicating itself in an offensive war it cannot control.

Our most deadly enemy lies closer to home: Russia is staging one hybrid provocation after another against our country and our depleted armed forces need to concentrate on that threat.

What we can take from Trump’s aggressive moves this year – in Venezuela, against Greenland and now Iran – is that the multipolar world is not an “order” but a chaos.

I have no doubt that in response to the attack there will be “Stop the War” demos. If you can find one where there are Iranian democratic speakers welcome, where pictures of Khamenei are banned, as are chants supporting Hamas and the Houthis, it might be justified to go on one.

Sadly, we are in a world where wars won’t stop but proliferate. And as you spectate – either with trepidation or enthusiasm – I will take you back to the opening image. The missile that hit the US base in Bahrain got through a sophisticated ballistic missile defence shield. We don’t possess one.