Attempts to lure the big Labour beast back to Westminster to lead the Labour Party consistently failed, and he had gone on to build a different, successful and important career. No matter how desperate the pleading, his mind would not be changed. And then Keir Starmer took the party to its massive election victory and the “Prince over the Water” was forgotten.
Now the rumbles of Labour discontent are swelling and a “Prince” is again being courted. But this time it is not David Miliband, but Andy Burnham – and he seems much more interested. Burnham managed only fourth position in the 2010 leadership contest, while David Miliband came second, beaten by his brother Ed.
Five years later, Jeremy Corbyn was the resounding choice, and Andy Burnham came second. Burnham then stepped down as MP for the Leigh constituency in Greater Manchester, and was elected mayor of Manchester. He has since won two more elections, in 2021 and 2024, most recently with 63% of the vote. His nearest rival trailed more than 50 points behind him.
In Manchester, people love Burnham. Having first encountered him as a young and wide-eyed Treasury minister, I was disappointed with his defence of the extradition treaty his government, led by Tony Blair, had signed with the United States. It was – and remains – deeply weighted in favour of the long and heavy arm of US law. But meeting Burnham many years later in his home territory, he exudes appeal: charming and friendly, informal yet well informed. Once on stage, he clearly had the local audience in his thrall. He is empathetic and persuasive – his dominant message: I will improve the lives of the people I serve.
As Burnham has soared, the prime minister has floundered in a succession of disasters, many of them self-inflicted. Even after a successful, if somewhat surreal, state visit from president Trump, discontent with the government’s lack of direction is spreading across the Labour benches. Even Cabinet ministers are struggling to sound loyal. Starmer has drifted too far out to the right for many in his party. His reshuffle failed to calm dissenters and now it feels that a botched Budget in November might be the catalyst for a coup. But there is no obvious contender to succeed him within the current government.
The nascent, as yet unnamed, party of the Corbynite far left seems to be falling apart before getting off the ground. Besides, the UK had a chance to choose Corbynism and opted for the chaos of Boris Johnson instead. The discontented electoral drift towards Nigel Farage would not be halted by another chance to vote for Corbyn.
Hence it is understandable that the spotlight has landed brightly on Burnham. He once classed himself as firmly Blairite but now maintains that his experience as mayor has given him new insight into the nation’s problems, particularly on the social front. The need, he has argued, is now for a party that “unites the popular left”. That is a broad spectrum, but an analysis that recognises that if Labour divides, it risks letting in the growing force of Reform and the far right.
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Burnham has begun to make it pretty clear that, if the opportunity were available, he might put himself forward to lead the Labour partry. His problem is that he is simply not in a position to do so, since he is not a member of the House of Commons. He has previously claimed that he would see out his third mayoral term but the indications are that he now feels able to ditch that commitment for a shot at the leadership. It is probably fair to say that his loyal subjects in Manchester would wish him every success.
Even though his reach as mayor covers the much more extensive territory of Greater Manchester, it must be said that before devolution created his role, with its new devolved powers, the city of Manchester had been an unusually effective and far-sighted local authority, doing some pioneering work on integrating health and social care services, for instances. Burnham, had a brief spell as health minister, and dealing with social care would be likely to feature on any leadership manifesto he wrote.
There is currently no open fight under way to become Labour leader – yet it does feel as if Starmer is in a precarious position. The Conservatives, with nowhere else to go, are taking every opportunity to undermine him and those opportunities keep on coming. But politics can turn very quickly and a slick, effective Budget could restore Starmer’s authority, even though it would undoubtedly have to be one that guaranteed widespread pain, at least in the short term. Done with conviction and confidence, it could persuade enough Labour MPs that they should back the man who returned them to power.
If that fails, even Burnham might wonder whether, given the scale of the country’s problems and the ungovernable nature of many MPs, he really wants to leave Manchester, where he is widely admired, for No.10, where the outcome is far from certain.
