From Orbán fan to Orbán foe: will Péter Magyar change Hungary?

This was not a victory for Hungary alone. It was a victory for western democratic society, which has finally begun to rid itself of the Russian pawns who had ascended to the highest levels of leadership in a European state. A country that, just a few decades ago, rose up in revolution with the slogan “Russians go home,” has finally remembered its true attitude toward Moscow.

This could be a complete victory for Ukraine, whose relations with Hungary had reached an absurd level of hostility. And Péter Magyar, who achieved an unprecedented triumph in the elections, could be the leader who turns Budapest’s course by one hundred and eighty degrees – toward Kyiv. 

But having overly high hopes for the new prime minister would be, at the very least, naive and at worst, foolish. Magyar made this clear in his first comments to state television after his election victory, as well as in earlier campaign statements.

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We often overlook the fact that Magyar is a product of Fidesz. His political views were shaped within the party where he spent more than 20 years. And it’s worth recalling that the tension between Kyiv and Hungary began back in 2017, when Hungary claimed that Hungarian national minorities were allegedly being oppressed. After 2022, the relationship deteriorated even further. 

Magyar has long admired Orbán. He even hung a poster of him on his wall while he was still at school. Although he consistently criticised Orbán for cozying up to Moscow, some of his views still align with Orbán. Even after leaving Fidesz, he remains a conservative, saying he is a politician who places national interests above all else, above those of the European Union – and, evidently, above those of Ukraine as well.

Back in 2024, like Orbán, he supported the decision not to send any military aid to Ukraine. He also recently said his government would review energy contracts with Russia, but he does not promise that Budapest will fully abandon them. It still leaves the Kremlin with leverage over the new government. Not to mention that Moscow’s energy revenues help it fund its war machine against Ukraine. 

Magyar also opposes Ukraine’s fast-tracked accession to the European Union. Moreover, he said that the question of Ukraine’s EU membership would be put to a national referendum. And that is a slippery slope. 

For years, Orbán cultivated fear of war and overt Ukrainophobia among Hungarians to rally voters against an external enemy. For a time, it worked. In 2022, Fidesz secured a constitutional majority in parliament. They specifically targeted voters in the provinces, who were seen as comparatively less educated and were active consumers of the propaganda media empire built by Orbán over more than a decade in power. 

The sentiments outside the cities are very different from those I saw in Budapest. Even if some of the ex-Orbán voters chose Magyar this time, this is not an automatic shift to becoming pro-Ukrainian and it definitely puts Ukraine’s EU accession at risk.

Magyar’s electorate ranges from LGBTQ+ activists with left-wing views to former Orbán supporters who have grown disillusioned with the system. He has to balance between the two ends of that spectrum and Ukraine is definitely not a priority.

Even during his election campaign, Magyar tried to keep his stance on Ukraine as neutral as possible. In this way he was tactically smarter than his predecessor Péter Márki-Zay who lost the elections to Fidesz in 2022. Magyar largely avoided making any huge statements about Ukraine, despite provocations from Orbán, who was desperately trying to portray him as an agent of the “Kyiv regime” and someone who would bring war to Hungary. So he will not suddenly become a hawk on Ukraine. It’s simply not in his political interests. 

Still, at least in the short term, Hungary’s and Ukraine’s interests align. Just after Magyar’s win, the European Union presented the new Hungarian government with a 27-point plan to unlock €35bn for Budapest. Those funds were frozen amid the standoff between Orbán and Brussels. Among the conditions are several related to Ukraine, including the unblocking of €90bn for Kyiv and lifting the veto on the 20th package of sanctions against Russia.

Magyar wants to improve relations with Brussels, so he won’t resist this. Ukraine, in turn, may finally get the loan it badly needs to cover its budget gap and continue the war against Russia.

Unlike Orbán, Magyar calls Russia the aggressor and does not urge Ukraine to give up its territories. He visited Ukraine after the brutal Russian strike on a children’s hospital in central Kyiv in 2024 and condemned Moscow for this war crime. 

Moreover, Magyar wants to rebuild friendly relations with neighboring countries after they were strained by his predecessor over 16 years in power. That obviously includes Ukraine – especially after Orbán centered his entire campaign on demonizing it. But both countries will have to make significant efforts to undo the damage. 

Without Orbán, Ukraine would have had an easier time. Magyar is not a magic pill that will eliminate all problems in Ukrainian-Hungarian relations. Really he is a litmus test for Ukrainians. He will reveal whether Hungary has truly changed.

Mariana Lastovyria is creative editor of The Counter Offensive with Tim Mak on Substack