Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, has issued a stark warning to Iceland: avoid attracting the attention of the US president. In a recent interview with the Icelandic newspaper Heimildin, Bolton voiced concerns over Iceland’s limited defence capabilities and how that might become an issue if Trump turns his focus further north.
“I’m a little worried that one day he will discover that Iceland does not have a military and therefore Iceland’s contribution to military spending is about 0.0% of GDP,” Bolton told Heimildin.
Iceland, a Nato member, has no standing military. Its defence rests on its Nato membership and a longstanding defence agreement with the US. Bolton, who has served under four Republican presidents from Ronald Reagan to Trump, warned that this arrangement could become precarious if Trump revives his ambitions in the Arctic.
In 2018, Trump directed Bolton to explore the possibility of the US purchasing Greenland from Denmark, even suggesting military action as an option if Denmark refused. “Just to give some context for this, Trump is not a decision maker,” Bolton said. “It was very much done haphazardly. He has no philosophy. He doesn’t make national security policy. He doesn’t even really engage in policymaking as we understand it; he was very erratic.”
The overall view of Icelanders was captured by a high school teacher in Reykjavík, who told me: “When you first hear something like that, it’s normal to feel worried, but then you think about how crazy that is,” she said. “No one here thinks that American troops are going to show up in Greenland or Iceland.”
Bolton emphasised that Iceland doesn’t need a traditional army, but should focus on strengthening its coastguard and other defence institutions. “During the second world war, my father, a very young sailor, served on coastguard ships and escorted convoys from the United States to the United Kingdom,” said Bolton. “It is the coastguard that can fulfil that role. In my opinion, it is not necessarily a decision to have an army as such, but rather to have a military capability that is useful.”
Bolton also suggested that a return of US forces to Iceland could be beneficial. During the cold war, American troops stationed at Keflavik Air Base reassured Icelanders of the US commitment to their defence. “I think there should be American forces in Iceland, if that is what Iceland wants,” Bolton stated, recalling the presence of a squadron of F-16 jets during the George W Bush administration.
Indeed, some Icelanders are thinking more about security. “It’s because of the way the world is right now, it’s not just about our confusion with America and Trump,” said a graphic designer in Reykjavík. “We have to think about Russia and China, but that doesn’t mean we should have a military; we just need to think about who our friends are and where we spend money for security.”
And that raises the question of Iceland’s international alignment. Although not a full EU member, Iceland participates in the European Economic Area, which grants it access to the EU’s single market. The question of full EU membership remains open, and the current government has committed to holding a referendum on resuming EU membership negotiations by 2027.
Many Icelanders remain sceptical of Trump’s foreign policy approach and feel a closer cultural and political connection to Europe and the Nordic countries. A sales manager from a local tourism company told me: “The thought of Trump trying to take over Iceland is laughable. He probably couldn’t find us on a map. Realistically, I think that we need to consider what our relationship with America will be. We see his policies, that he doesn’t understand a lot about the economy. I feel like we should be closer to Europe, to have a more formal collaboration.”
For now, Bolton’s advice to Iceland remains simple: stay out of Trump’s line of sight. “Iceland is now in a unique position: if Donald Trump ignores you for a year or two, it could be to your advantage,” he said. “You just need to make sure, before you come up on Trump’s radar screen, that you are prepared.”
Jenna Gottlieb is a freelance journalist and author based in Iceland
