America hates Trump’s Iran war

Some have decided to put on the blinkers and pretend – against all historical precedent – that US-led regime change can have a rosy outcome. You only need to tune into Fox News here to find these unlikely foreign interventionists, with the channel’s commentators throwing off the yoke of isolationism to become enthusiastic cheerleaders for military action. 

“This is a historic and incredible show of superior military and intelligence might,” thundered Fox broadcaster Sean Hannity soon after the bombs began raining down at the weekend. 

The magical thinking is as follows: killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a generational victory against evil, and now a short-term military operation will end the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran and bring in a new pro-American regime. 

The far-right podcaster Jack Posobiec, who had a history of opposing foreign military interventions before this week, summed up this view in an interview with Steve Bannon. 

“It does look as though the president has the ability now to find that stable leadership, cut the deal, ensure peace and do so swiftly and smartly rather than get into a prolonged and protracted conflict,” he said, somewhat optimistically. 

Such was the scale of the right-wing delusions that Matt Walsh, the MAGA commentator who writes for the Daily Wire, accused fellow conservatives of gaslighting.

“You and I both know that almost every conservative influencer in the business was opposed to war with Iran until just now,” he wrote on X.

“Attacking Iran was not a policy priority for them,” he went on, “and many were expressly against it. Trying to rewrite that history now is just grotesque.”

But for all the MAGA lemmings showing a wilful blindness at the approaching cliff, there are plenty – such as Walsh – who have stuck to their guns and come out against the war, in what could become the issue that finally breaks Trump’s hold over his base. 

Marjorie Taylor Greene, former Republican congresswoman and once one of Trump’s most ardent followers, called the administration a “bunch of sick fucking liars”.

Suggested Reading

Iran, Trump and the US right’s post-modern swerve

Jay Elwes

“It feels like the worst betrayal this time because it comes from the very man and the admin who we all believed was different and said no more,” she wrote on X.

Greene fell out with Trump last year over his handling of the Epstein files and was cast from his inner circle, but there are others still within the president’s orbit who are furious about the war. Influential conservative commentator Tucker Carslon told ABC the war was “disgusting and evil”.

Most of the complaints are that Trump has become a pawn for Israeli foreign policy, with no clear benefit for the American people. 

For now, most Republican lawmakers are toeing the party line and supporting the military action in Iran. That could quickly change. Already there is dissent in the party over Trump’s handling of the Epstein files and the killing of two US citizens in Minnesota.

There are crucial midterm elections coming in November, when the Republicans risk losing control of the House and the Senate. The high cost of living is already the issue likely to define those elections. Should the war in Iran push up oil prices or the cost of other commodities, that would prove disastrous for Republican candidates.

Six US servicemembers have been killed so far in Trump’s Iran war. Any increase in coffins coming home draped in the Stars and Stripes will erode the already-slim support for Trump’s military strikes. 

For now, it is in the interests of most Republicans to remain on Trump’s good side, but that calculation would quickly change with any sign of a drawn-out war.

The Democrats also need to figure out a united stance going into the midterms. While there has been some coherent messaging demanding congressional approval for the war, there are deep divides in the party over US support for Israel. These need to be smoothed out if the Democrats are going to successfully use the Iran war to win over midterm voters. 

Because while America’s political movements are wracked with disunity, the public is more consistent: all the polling suggests widespread opposition to the Iran war. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 27% of people supported the campaign. CNN found that nearly 60% of people disapprove and more than half think a long-term US-Iran war is likely.

It seems they have a better grasp of historical precedent that the people running the country. 

But what the American public does not seem to have grasped yet is that chaos is the status quo now, and they have a president hellbent on pursuing the most extreme path possible. 

Speaking with ordinary Americans of different political stripes over the past few days, their sense of shock and incredulity that Trump went ahead with an all-out assault is striking. 

Despite all the evidence we have seen in the 14 months since Trump took office, people still have the capacity to believe that Trump may choose the path of reason and moderation over one of shock and awe. It seems the magical thinking extends outside the MAGA base as well.