Alastair Campbell's diary: Will Farage be prime minister? Really?

Channel 4 are making a documentary, presented by former Spectator editor Fraser Nelson, asking whether Nigel Farage will be the next prime minister. I am guessing the proportion of New World readers answering yes to that question is substantially lower than Reform’s current standing in the polls, which is what has led to the question being asked.

Some of you may see the very idea of such a programme as part of the media’s obsession with Farage, coverage of whom dwarfs that of leaders of parties with far more than the handful of MPs he leads. Indeed, you may have heard me complain that our media has largely created, not merely covered, the rise of Farage and Reform.

Oh how I felt the journos’ pain when Reform failed to win the recent Scottish parliamentary by-election, an event they would have left largely untouched had it not been for their breathlessly reported rising expectations of a Reform win. The only way they got over it was to pretend Farage was the real winner anyway, despite him having come third behind Labour and the SNP.

However, naïve though this may be given the state of our media, I am hopeful that the prospect of Farage as PM will see a shift from coverage to actual scrutiny. These are two very different things.

Farage’s best pal Donald Trump (well, he liked to pretend he was until he realised the US president is widely loathed in Britain) is a genius at getting coverage rather than scrutiny. He does and says so much that the press feel they have to cover, and meanwhile they don’t have the time or the will to examine properly the corruption, the crimes, the offences against the Constitution, the never-ending lies and the mind-bending inconsistencies in domestic and foreign policy.

Channel 4 asked me to be interviewed for Nelson’s film, with a particular focus on how Labour should handle Reform, and I was happy to do so. I jotted down a few thoughts in advance, under the heading “Labour’s better tomorrow versus Farage’s better yesterday.”

But I think my best line came as a result of us chatting over the issues in a half-hour interview which will understandably be reduced to a few clips: summing up, I said economically, Farage is Liz Truss Mark 2; politically and presentationally, he is Boris Johnson Mark 2. The two worst prime ministers in history.

Are we really going to install a combination of the two of them in Downing Street? Really?

This week sees the ninth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, and polling to coincide with this unhappy event shows an ever-growing proportion of the population believing that the UK made the wrong choice. It explains, by the way, why Mr Farage hardly ever talks about it. He may be a charlatan, but he’s not daft.

Another major poll I saw this week, conducted by YouGov under the guidance of my old friend and colleague from the US, Stan Greenberg, suggests the political space exists for Labour to be a lot bolder on issues which Farage and his right wing media cheerleaders are convinced play well for them. Climate, for example.

Three quarters of people believe the climate crisis is real, and want bold action. They also want Britain to get closer to the EU. And there is enormous support – 80% – for a wealth tax, not least to tackle child poverty.

Farage’s buddy in the White House is beaten only by Farage’s hero in the Kremlin in the global unpopularity stakes, with President Zelensky at the other end of the scale. Support for Ukraine remains strong, ditto support for more defence spending.

Immigration remains a big issue for people, albeit for most well behind cost of living and the NHS, and clearly Labour need to sort out the small boats issue, bring down the hotel bills paid for housing asylum seekers, and frankly fix the mess of the immigration system that the Tories (and their Brexit deal) left behind.

The finding that most struck me, however, was this: nearly 15% of Lib Dem voters and 10% of Greens say there is “a fair chance” they will vote Labour when the election comes. The figures for current Conservative and Reform supporters? Three per cent and one per cent respectively.

So what Labour shouldn’t do is assume that because people want immigration fixed, they want Labour to be more like Reform. On the contrary, the polling confirmed my view that the public wants Labour to be more, er, Labour.

It was lovely to be asked by cyclist Sir Chris Hoy to join him on the podcast he presents with journalist Matt Majendie, Sporting Misadventures. An excuse, of course, to talk for the nth time about the highlight of my life so far, playing alongside Diego Maradona in the first Soccer Aid; but also to remind Chris that the last time our country really felt good about itself was London 2012, when he and his fellow Team GB athletes were giving us so much entertainment, excitement, pride, and joy.

For a change, I was not the first to mention the B-word. It was Chris who pointed out how hard it was to fathom that just four years later, the national mood had soured to the point that the country voted to leave the EU.

The other reason I was keen to do the interview was to give him my best wishes in the awful circumstances in which he finds himself, having been told he has terminal prostate cancer, with somewhere between two and four years to live.

He looks as fit as ever, though, and it is clear – and inspiring – that he is using against illness the same mindset techniques that made him one of the greatest track cyclists of all time. Staying focused on what he needs to do to stay healthy; seeing every moment of every day as an opportunity; above all valuing the things that really matter … family, friends, and getting out on his bike, which he still does most days.

Chris Hoy seemed suitably impressed that I have done multiple climbs of Mont Ventoux, where the Tour de France will be heading once again for one of its mountain stages on July 22.

It is however, too tough and painful for me to see it as my favourite climb on the bike. That is a toss-up between the Col de Madeleine, and the Col de Propiac, the latter because for years, I have always enjoyed the flowing source of cool, clean, refreshing water a couple of kilometres from the top, to drink, fill water bottles, and wash sweat out of my eyes.

So it was with real sadness, and then anger, that I arrived there on a ride last week, after two hours in 30 degree heat, to find the source had dried up. Another casualty of climate change, which the Climate Fantasist-in-Chief was back denying last week, because the forecast of rain for his parade turned out to be wrong. It was still a total flop, though, and a source of merriment in Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang, to whom military parades really matter.

Meanwhile, virtually unreported by US and world media, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was warning that there are whole regions of the US, including California, where in 10 to 15 years, risks of fire and coastal erosion mean banks and insurance companies are pulling out, and it will be impossible to get a mortgage.

But hey, let’s “drill baby drill,” and destroy the planet.